When Shawn Fain, the United Car Staff president, unveiled the deal that ended six weeks of strikes at Ford Motor within the fall, he framed it as a part of an extended marketing campaign. Subsequent, he declared, can be the duty of organizing nonunion crops throughout the nation.

“One among our largest targets popping out of this historic contract victory is to prepare like we’ve by no means organized earlier than,” he mentioned on the time. “After we return to the bargaining desk in 2028, it gained’t simply be with the Large Three. Will probably be the Large 5 or Large Six.”

4 months later, the primary check of that technique has come into focus, and it contains a Volkswagen plant in Chattanooga, Tenn.

In response to the union, greater than half of over 4,000 eligible staff have signed playing cards indicating assist for a union. Staff say they’ve accomplished so as a result of they need increased pay, extra paid time without work and extra beneficiant well being advantages — and since the current strikes at Ford, Normal Motors and Stellantis persuaded them {that a} union may also help win these concessions.

“The Large Three, they’d their large marketing campaign, and their large strike and vote, and new contracts — we paid consideration to that very intently,” mentioned Yolanda Peoples, who has labored on the Volkswagen plant for almost 13 years.

The Volkswagen plant announced an 11 p.c pay improve shortly after the strikes on the Large Three. The increase introduced the highest hourly wage for manufacturing staff to $32.40, however the comparable wage for the Detroit automakers will exceed $40 by the top of the brand new contracts. (Volkswagen said the wage adjustment was a part of a yearly evaluate.)

Unions want a easy majority of votes to win, however the U.A.W. says it won’t file for an election on the Chattanooga plant till 70 p.c of the plant’s staff have signed playing cards and staff have constructed an in depth organizing committee, which union officers count on within the subsequent month.

The warning displays the U.A.W.’s expertise within the South, the place previous campaigns fell quick.

However the stakes could also be even increased this time given the union’s funding in organizing several plants at once — together with a Mercedes-Benz manufacturing facility in Alabama, the place greater than 50 p.c of staff have signed playing cards, and a Hyundai plant in Alabama, the place the union has playing cards from greater than 30 p.c of staff.

Final week, the union said it was additionally allocating $40 million to organizing auto and battery staff by means of 2026 — far exceeding its earlier funds for such efforts, in line with Jonah Furman, a union spokesman — and steered that point was of the essence.

“Within the subsequent few years, the electrical car battery business is slated so as to add tens of 1000’s of jobs throughout the nation, and new requirements are being set because the business comes on-line,” the union mentioned in its funding announcement.

If the union wins in Chattanooga, mentioned Joshua Murray, a sociologist at Vanderbilt College who has studied the auto business’s response to unionization, it could shortly replicate the victory at different crops, because it did throughout an organizing wave within the Nineteen Thirties.

“Lots of time the failure to unionize is just not that staff are in opposition to being in a union — it’s that they’re not satisfied they’ll win,” Dr. Murray mentioned. “Displaying they’ll win is an enormous deal for getting staff who weren’t gung-ho about it to be gung-ho.”

A loss in Chattanooga, Dr. Murray mentioned, may sap workers’ confidence and encourage administration at different automakers to withstand.

Different analysts, like Sam Fiorani, vp of world car forecasting on the analysis agency AutoForecast Options, predicted that Tesla can be a selected problem. “The pinnacle of Tesla is Elon Musk, and he’s going to combat in opposition to change,” Mr. Fiorani mentioned.

The union seems to be benefiting from a resurgence of curiosity in organizing after a lull throughout the presidency of Donald J. Trump and the beginning of the pandemic. Final yr, unions gained greater than 1,225 elections — probably the most in at least a decade, in line with the Nationwide Labor Relations Board. They misplaced about 500.

Polling shows that youthful staff are particularly supportive, and they look like serving to to gasoline the current auto business organizing. “We’re letting them know, ‘You’re making a pleasant pay fee in comparison with your age, however this may be higher,’” mentioned Ronald Terry, a employee concerned within the organizing on the Hyundai plant in Alabama.

Youthful staff on the Volkswagen plant additionally categorical frustration on the paid time without work they accrue: 12 or 13 days throughout their first two years of employment, a number of of which they need to use throughout plant shutdowns in the event that they need to be paid.

Requested in regards to the complaints, a Volkswagen spokesman mentioned that the corporate understood that point off was a big concern and that it had lately introduced a rise in unpaid time without work for emergencies.

The corporate mentioned final month that its Chattanooga wages had elevated at almost twice the speed of inflation since 2013, and that the typical manufacturing employee would make greater than $60,000 this yr earlier than bonuses or additional time and pay lower than $2,000 in premiums to cowl greater than 80 p.c of well being care prices.

The union sought a vote in Chattanooga in 2014 and confronted no opposition from the corporate, whose worldwide crops are principally unionized. However the effort failed amid strain from state Republican leaders, who steered {that a} union would jeopardize the plant’s enlargement.

With staff complaining of understaffing, excessive harm charges and last-minute additional time, the U.A.W. tried once more in 2019. However pleas from Tennessee’s governor and the plant’s unique chief govt, who mentioned he had returned to his former place to deal with staff’ issues, appeared to defuse assist. The union narrowly misplaced.

This time, the union seems decided to attenuate the impact of such pushback.

The union wants to recruit a volunteer chief for each line on each shift on the plant — greater than 125 altogether, in line with the union’s tally. That method, organizers say, the volunteers can shortly reply to rumors or firm speaking factors that co-workers encounter.

“If you happen to don’t have somebody persevering with that dialog, we now have seen a few of that backsliding in a couple of smaller areas,” mentioned Isaac Meadows, a employee concerned within the organizing.

He attributed the backsliding to the affect of outside groups and chatter from staff’ associates and family members {that a} union would discourage employers from finding in Tennessee.

Gerald McCormick, a Republican who because the state’s Home majority chief opposed the union throughout the 2014 vote, mentioned Republicans would possibly fear that the union would assist left-wing causes in Tennessee if it received a foothold there.

“They don’t need to do them any favors,” he mentioned, referring to the state’s Republican management, which he predicted would oppose the union marketing campaign once more.

As in 2019, the employer’s response could also be essential. The Volkswagen model seems to be roughly holding its personal in the US, and considerably forward within the transition to electrical autos.

Greater than 11 p.c of Volkswagen’s U.S. sales final yr got here from E.V.s — particularly the ID.4, a compact sport utility car in-built Chattanooga. That determine was increased than the general 9.4 p.c share for plug-in autos within the U.S. market, in line with BloombergNEF, an power analysis agency.

A Volkswagen official mentioned throughout a tour of the plant that about one-third of its output this yr would in all probability be ID.4s, and that the share may double inside a decade.

If that occurs, the plant could also be comparatively properly positioned to soak up increased labor prices. Corey Cantor, an electrical car analyst at BloombergNEF, mentioned continued battery innovation, together with efficiencies from larger-scale battery manufacturing, may offset the fee will increase related to unionization.

However a union presence may complicate the ramp-up in electrical car manufacturing, Mr. Fiorani of AutoForecast Options mentioned, if the union resists the decline in staff per automotive which will accompany the shift. He famous that firms that made their very own batteries would possibly have the ability to reallocate these staff moderately than lay them off, nevertheless.

Pablo Di Si, the chief govt of Volkswagen Group of America, mentioned in a press release that the plant had already added jobs in battery pack meeting and battery engineering.

Assembly with reporters final month, a Volkswagen official mentioned that the corporate would keep impartial throughout an election marketing campaign, however that “impartial doesn’t imply silent — it means neutral to what workers determine.”

The official added that the corporate would right misinformation, which it accuses the union of spreading, about pay and dealing circumstances within the plant. (Firms reaching neutrality agreements with unions sometimes don’t intervene this fashion.)

Mr. Meadows, the union supporter, mentioned managers had communicated skepticism in generally delicate methods, like eradicating union fliers from lunch tables.

“Someone put out a few enterprise playing cards for a garden service firm, and we had some materials on the identical desk,” Mr. Meadows recalled. “Our supplies disappeared, and the others didn’t.”

Volkswagen mentioned the cleanliness of the tables was ruled by “clear insurance policies.”